Flaw of the Week · October 12, 2026
Correlation vs. Causation: The Ice Cream Crime Wave
The flawed argument
A city council member noted that ice cream sales and drowning deaths both peak in July. She concluded that ice cream consumption causes drowning, and proposed warning labels on ice cream.
Why it fails
Two things rising together does not mean one causes the other. Here a third factor, hot weather, drives both: heat sells ice cream and sends people swimming. The council member spotted a real pattern and invented a fake cause.
The answer
The flaw is treating correlation as causation; a common cause (summer heat) explains both trends.
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Last updated October 12, 2026